In the golden autumn of September, the harvest season, have those in the crypto industry reaped any rewards?
The Aleo project has just experienced two significant events, but just like its low-key privacy feature, these events passed quietly, leaving no trace in the market!
In September, the project's token unlock did not show any signs of selling pressure or unlocking in the market;
On September 14, it launched on Binance Alpha, experiencing a surge before returning to calm.
The Aleo project continues to move forward quietly, with the secondary market remaining lukewarm, and there are no new developments in development and ecology. This silence leaves one wondering whether it is a hidden dragon in the depths or just going with the flow!
Every little movement stirs the hearts of all investors and miners. Faced with the sideways performance of the market, the strategy of going long or short tests the mentality of secondary market investors and miners, whether to cash out or hold on, everyone has their own views.
In the past month, the overall price of Aleo in the secondary market has slightly increased. The launch on Binance Alpha brought some traffic and buying interest, trading volume has expanded, and the monthly average line has been steadily rising, providing solid price support. The price has been hovering around $0.25 for over a month. The originally scheduled project unlock in September did not bring market selling pressure or new circulation, which is the foundation for price stability. If the project team can maintain the technical foundation and gradually develop the market and ecology, and then launch into a larger circulation market, the overall market performance of Aleo is still predictable.
Since August, the project team has changed the mining algorithm, raising the production threshold for miners and locking in a significant portion of liquidity, which is also an important measure to promote stability in the secondary market. For miners, the following factors determine returns and risks:
1. Price expectations in the secondary market
2. Hashrate declining instead of increasing
After experiencing a rapid growth period in hashrate from March to July, the overall hashrate has stabilized since August, and even declined somewhat since September. It is estimated that some small machines are gradually going offline, and manufacturers are no longer piling up production capacity. It is also expected that mining machine manufacturers will not increase machine shipments. Considering the anticipated algorithm changes next year, manufacturers will also assess risks. A stable or even declining hashrate is beneficial for the stable output of existing large miners, turning the previous maximum volatility into a measure.
3. Rapid decline in machine investment costs
After a round of market competition, the prices of the two main suppliers, Ice River and Golden Shell, have dropped to freezing points. Currently, I have learned that key products like Ice River AE2 and AE1 are basically out of stock (further confirming the expectation of stable network hashrate). The largest hashrate machine for sale from Golden Shell, AE MAXII, is still being shipped in small quantities, and AE BOXII has also dropped to around a thousand yuan. Based on the market price of AE MAXII, the net payback period has reached about 4 months. Considering the machine's lifecycle, if prices remain stable, the output yield can exceed 40%.
Considering the scale of hashrate, price factors, and machine costs, for miners, Aleo mining is still a good investment choice. Compared to mining projects like DOGE and BTC, the longer cycles bring more uncontrollable risks, while Aleo mining has clearer and more defined short-term investment risks and returns.
In the current market environment, for miners and secondary investors with weaker risk resistance, varieties with predictable medium to short-term outcomes are more suitable. The test of risk and return is a reflection of everyone's vision and judgment. For the most diligent miners, is the risk greater than the opportunity, or is the opportunity greater than the risk?